Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.007962 0.008977 0.010074 0.011348 0.012787 0.014365 0.016225
2026-01-11 0.006451 0.007868 0.009527 0.011612 0.014169 0.017206 0.021094
2026-01-18 0.005448 0.007016 0.008954 0.011530 0.014871 0.019070 0.024764
2026-01-25 0.004770 0.006421 0.008554 0.011520 0.015550 0.020854 0.028395
2026-02-01 0.004189 0.005857 0.008097 0.011335 0.015915 0.022189 0.031485
2026-02-08 0.003805 0.005504 0.007866 0.011401 0.016585 0.023948 0.035272
2026-02-15 0.003439 0.005131 0.007558 0.011307 0.016989 0.025328 0.038597
2026-02-22 0.003221 0.004945 0.007492 0.011546 0.017880 0.027468 0.043220
2026-03-01 0.002881 0.004542 0.007060 0.011180 0.017800 0.028110 0.045552
2026-03-08 0.002623 0.004238 0.006750 0.010966 0.017924 0.029055 0.048418
2026-03-15 0.002380 0.003936 0.006413 0.010674 0.017884 0.029716 0.050848
2026-03-22 0.002296 0.003885 0.006476 0.011037 0.018951 0.032266 0.056676
2026-03-29 0.002183 0.003779 0.006440 0.011239 0.019774 0.034495 0.062193
2026-04-05 0.002089 0.003697 0.006439 0.011500 0.020720 0.037016 0.068469
2026-04-12 0.001947 0.003518 0.006256 0.011419 0.021041 0.038444 0.072854
2026-04-19 0.001830 0.003374 0.006120 0.011409 0.021485 0.040122 0.077845
2026-04-26 0.001699 0.003193 0.005902 0.011226 0.021585 0.041160 0.081677
2026-05-03 0.001614 0.003090 0.005819 0.011291 0.022161 0.043137 0.087530
2026-05-10 0.001515 0.002954 0.005663 0.011198 0.022416 0.044506 0.092264
2026-05-17 0.001464 0.002907 0.005673 0.011434 0.023343 0.047275 0.100129
2026-05-24 0.001348 0.002721 0.005398 0.011072 0.023018 0.047480 0.102582
2026-05-31 0.001258 0.002581 0.005204 0.010860 0.022986 0.048279 0.106374
2026-06-07 0.001167 0.002433 0.004982 0.010571 0.022765 0.048658 0.109266